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Daryl Montgomery speaks on the current economic situation
Daryl Montgomery & Elizabeth Letchworth
Political Commentary (Your Congress)
2010-09-06 by Elizabeth Letchworth
Will September be a “draining” month
on Planet Pelosi?
Members of Congress and their staffs will slowly be making their way back to D.C. this coming week, in an effort to get prepared for a quick, short, fall session of the 111th Congress before the November elections occur. There is lots of work awaiting the politicians, the least of which is the full funding of our Federal Government broken into twelve money bills officially called appropriations bills. Must Read! ...
Finance & Economics (Your Money)
2010-09-08 by Daryl Montgomery
Stocks Sharp Up and Down Moves
Can be Explained by Gaps
Anyone who rides a commuter rail in the United States is probably used to hearing a message to 'watch the gap'. The advice also holds for stock trading. Read More...
PSC Financial & Economics Contributor
Organizer of the New York Investing Meetup Group
http://investing.meetup.com/21
2010-09-07 by Daryl Montgomery
Stocks Rally in Early September
Despite Bad Economy
U.S. stocks had an impressive rally the first four days of the month and this is generally a bullish indicator. The rally took place with a backdrop of really ugly economic news however and that is not bullish. Weakness has a way of coming back to haunt the market as European bank news is demonstrating today.
2010-09-03 by Daryl Montgomery
BLS Makes Error in Reporting
August Jobs
According to the August jobs report, the U.S. lost another 54,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.6%.
2010-09-02 by Daryl Montgomery
Summarizing Employment Data
From 4 Recent Reports
Four jobs related reports were released in the first two days of September and they seem to indicate a contradictory view of the U.S. employment situation.
2010-09-01 by Daryl Montgomery
Economic Reports Indicate Inflation;
Stocks Soar
Despite a number of economic reports at the beginning of the month indicating continued problems, stocks rallied strongly on September 1st. The Nikkei was up over 1% and the major European markets were up between 1% and 2%. The U.S. markets were up over 2% in morning trade.
2010-08-31 by Daryl Montgomery
Stocks Facing Headwinds in September
U.S. stocks are set to close out August with the Dow Industrials dropping more than 4% on the month. If the economic numbers continue to indicate a possible double-dip recession however, stocks are likely to fall by a much greater amount in September.
2010-08-30 by Daryl Montgomery
Fed Offering
'Stimulus You Can Believe In'
The mainstream media on Monday was hyping a Japanese expansion of a low-interest loan program to financial institutions after talking up Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's statement on Friday that the Fed "will do all that it can" to support the economy. Japanese stocks and U.S. stocks respectively rallied strongly on these essentially negative news items.
2010-08-27 by Daryl Montgomery
Q2 GDP Revisions Show
Stimulus Most of Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second quarter GPD growth down from 2.4% to 1.6% today. Stimulus spending peaked in the second quarter and despite the big boost that it provided, the U.S. economy only expanded at a rate that indicates the U.S. standard of living isn't declining further.
2010-08-25 by Daryl Montgomery
July Durable Goods Report
is Recessionary
After an existing home sales report yesterday revealed that the U.S. housing market is currently in worse shape than it was at the bottom of the Credit Crisis/Great Recession, July's durable goods report today further confirmed that the U.S. economy is sinking into a recession.
2010-08-24 by Daryl Montgomery
Huge Drop in July Home Sales
Shows failure of Stimulus Programs
Existing home sales plunged a record 27% in July, falling to the lowest level in 15 years. Inventories of unsold homes rose by an even greater 40% and were at their highest point in over a decade. A spokesman for real estate industry group NAR described the market's disastrous performance, which took place in every region of the country, as a "pause".
2010-08-24 by Daryl Montgomery
Japanese Stocks Are Leading the World Down
Japan has been trying to grapple with its real estate and stock market bubbles from the 1980s for over twenty years now. Its approach has been a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and an unending serious of stimulus programs (it was recently announced yet another one is being considered). The United States is currently following these same failed policies, but Washington is expecting that somehow they will work here.
2010-08-23 by Daryl Montgomery
FIDC Sings the Blues
with 8 Bank Rescues Last Week
The FDIC closed down eight banks last week bringing this year's total to 118 so far. Included in this week's closures was the notorious ShoreBank in Chicago.
2010-08-19 by Daryl Montgomery
Weekly Unemployment Claims
Well Into Recession Territory
After more than a year of economic 'recovery', the Department of Labor reported weekly unemployment claims rose to 500,000 last week. Any number at 400,000 or higher indicates recession. The last time weekly claims were below that number was the week of July 17, 2008 - more than three years ago.
2010-08-18 by Daryl Montgomery
Falling Rates Mean Global Economy
is in a Liquidity Trap
Moreover bond prices are going up when supply has undergone a tremendous expansion to pay for all the economic stimulus programs governments are running. So demand for government bonds has to be increasing faster than the rapidly growing supply if yields are falling. The obvious question is: Who is buying all of these bonds?
2010-08-17 by Daryl Montgomery
July Industrial Production Shows
How Fed Propaganda Works
The Fed reported that industrial production was up 1.1% in July and this got all the media headline attention. Stocks rallied on the bullish news implying economic recovery. Buried in the coverage was that June's number, originally reported as an increase, was downwardly revised to minus 0.5%.
2010-08-16 by Daryl Montgomery
China Overtakes Japan,
U.S. Could Be Next in 2020's
Second quarter GDP figures show that the Japanese economy has fallen behind China's and is now only the third largest in the world. Japan has engaged in 20 years of massive government stimulus programs and kept interest rates low, but this has failed to reignite GDP growth. Instead, its economy continues to slowly sink.
2010-08-15 by Daryl Montgomery
Wall Street Journal Says Crash,
But Really Predicts Recession
The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled, “Is a Crash Coming? 10 Reason to Be Cautious” on Friday, August 13th. While a crash is certainly possible, the reasons given by the Journal have little to do with why one could occur.
2010-08-13 by Daryl Montgomery
Bear Market Resumes
With This Weeks Selling
All four major U.S. stock indices began to form a bear market trading pattern during July. The rally that started early in the month paused the formation of that pattern, but didn't reverse it. Then the selling this week added more evidence that stocks are in a bear environment.
2010-08-12 by Daryl Montgomery
Much Bigger June Trade Deficit
Means Lower Q2 GDP
The lower GDP number means almost all of the growth in Q2 came from inventory accumulation and not from increased economic activity.
2010-08-11 by Daryl Montgomery
Fed All But Admits
Economy in Recession
After three years of easy money the Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it was going to buy around $10 billion a month in treasury bonds - a pittance for an economy the size of the United States.
2010-08-10 by Daryl Montgomery
Fed Fantasy
Has Been Rallying Stocks
The stock market is supposed to be a leading indicator of the economy and should react to changes approximately six months in advance. This only works in a free market however.
2010-08-09 by Daryl Montgomery
Consumers Lose Credit and Jobs,
But Feds Claim They Spend More
Despite decreased credit and income and increased savings, all three of which are negatives for consumer spending, GDP figures claim American consumers are buying more.
2010-08-06 by Daryl Montgomery
After 3 Years and $3 Trillion,
Still No Jobs
The U.S. lost 131,000 thousand jobs in July. It has now been three years since the first job losses appeared in August 2007. Despite over three trillion dollars in government deficit spending since then, the employment situation has yet to turn around.
2010-08-05 by Daryl Montgomery
Industrial Metals Rallying
Despite Deteriorating Economy
While traders are scratching their heads about how the stock market can continue to go up while the economic news continues to get worse, they also should be puzzled over the sharp rise in copper and other industrial metals in recent weeks.
2010-08-04 by Daryl Montgomery
Russian Drought Serious Problem
for Wheat Supply
The worst drought in 130 years has destroyed at least a fifth of the current Russian wheat crop and threatens much bigger damage to the winter wheat crop if the weather doesn't change soon. Only a bumper crop in the U.S. has prevented wheat prices from really going through the roof.
2010-08-03 by Daryl Montgomery
Consumer Confidence Numbers
Show Government's Failure
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said yesterday that he expected a recovery in consuming spending. Media headlines blared the good news and stocks rallied. The details of 'sometime in the next several quarters' got lost in the shuffle however. Nor did the media report that Bernanke has rarely made a prediction that has turned out to be correct.
2010-08-02 by Daryl Montgomery
China PMI Telegraphs Future for the EU and US
Stock markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S. rallied strongly on August 1st even though reports from purchasing managers in China, the EU and the U.S. did not bode well for future economic activity.
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