|
Your Money... Daryl Montgomery
The Year of Inflation or Depression?
Daryl Montgomery with PSC On-line...
The Economy.
2010-02-08 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. Consumer Credit -
Being Held Up by Government Loans
Despite less credit, a loss of income from less employment, and less money available for spending because of increased savings, the U.S. government has been reporting that consumers are spending more. The Consumer Credit figures indicate that it's not the consumer, but the government that's spending more.
PSC Economics & Finance Contributor
Organizer of the New York Investing Meetup Group.
http://investing.meetup.com/21
2010-02-05 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. Employment Report:
617,000 Extra Unemployed in 2009
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just revised its figures for 2009 and these now show that there was an extra 617,000 jobs lost in the U.S. economy last year.
2010-02-04 by Daryl Montgomery
Withdrawal of Liquidity
Threatens Second Global Meltdown
The market rally since March 2009 has been based on liquidity and even a small reduction can cause a market drop, a large reduction can cause a crash.
2010-02-03 by Daryl Montgomery
Currency Markets -
California Dreaming is Greek to Me
California is essentially in default and is only being kept afloat by constant cash infusions from a number of federal stimulus programs. It represents a much bigger drain on the U.S. dollar, than Greece does for the euro.
2010-02-02 by Daryl Montgomery
Gold Rallies Off Support;
Inflation Threat Hasn't Gone Away
Despite a barrage of press coverage during the last several weeks, the threat of inflation hasn't diminished, nor are the world's governments likely to return to fiscal and monetary responsibility for many years into the future.
2010-02-01 by Daryl Montgomery
The 2011 U.S Budget -
Inflationary and Out of Control
The United States has only two ways of paying for its budget deficits. We either borrow the money - almost all of which comes from foreign sources - or we print it.
2010-01-29 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. 4th Quarter GDP -
Slower Decline Leads to Growth
Only in the magic world of economic statistics can a slower rate of decline be declared as growth. It was just this sort of Alice in Wonderland logic that led to the U.S. government declaring that its fourth quarter GDP grew at a 5.7% annual rate. This number didn't result from actual economic growth per se, but from a slower rate of decline of inventories.
2010-01-28 by Daryl Montgomery
The State of the Union for Investors
We live in extraordinary times. The U.S. economy is at risk of veering toward a multi-year depressionary state or experiencing a massive bout of inflation. Based on president Obama's State of the Union address last night, investors should still be worrying about both possibilities.
2010-01-27 by Daryl Montgomery
Home Sales Fall Expectedly
Instead of spending huge amounts of taxpayer money to support the housing industry, it would be best to let prices adjust to realistic market levels. It was government programs that created the housing bubble in the first place, which in turn led to the Credit Crisis. Home prices went to unsustainable levels based on historical trends.
2010-01-26 by Daryl Montgomery
Consumers Lack Confidence,
They Also Lack Credit
The dismal job picture with 10% unemployment (not including discouraged workers and people forced to work part-time, which brings the U.S. unemployment number to the 17% to 20% level) is only one reason that consumers won't spend.
2010-01-25 by Daryl Montgomery
The Case Against Reappointing Ben Bernanke
Economics is one of the few professions where incompetence is regularly rewarded. The attempt to keep Ben Bernanke as head of the Federal Reserve for a second term is one of the most glaring examples of this practice - and one that will have serious negative repercussions for the United States going forward.
2010-01-22 by Daryl Montgomery
As U.S. Banks Deteriorate, Obama Proposes New Regulation
In 2009, 140 U.S. banks went under, the largest number since the Savings & Loan Crisis.
2010-01-21 by Daryl Montgomery
Trouble in the Euro Zone Boosts Dollar,
Lowers Commodities
The long-term trend however is that fiat currencies are all losing their value and this was already evident by the 1970s.
2010-01-20 by Daryl Montgomery
Big Bank Earnings Contradict
Economic Recovery Claims
Earnings for the big banks indicate that the U.S. economy is still in severe recession. Their lending operations are still experiencing massive losses and in some cases these have gotten worse than during the bleakest days of the Credit Crisis.
2010-01-19 by Daryl Montgomery (Election Special)
Lessons for Investors from the Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race
Investors should pay attention to how the markets react the day after the Senate election and to Obama's State of the Union address on January 27th. The market will tell you what it thinks of this turn of events.
2010-01-15 by Daryl Montgomery
Toothless CFTC Tries to Bite Gold and Silver
The CFTC's action is just another government- motivated attempt to prop up the U.S. dollar by trying to hold the price of gold down. It won't work. The CFTC doesn't have the power to make it happen. Prices will eventually have to move to the point that the market dictates, just as they always do.
2010-01-14 by Daryl Montgomery
2009 Retail Sales Deconstructed
As the retail sales report shows, government money can prop up an ailing sector of the economy, can make the economic numbers look better, and can create inflation, but it can't necessarily buy a recovery.
2010-01-13 by Daryl Montgomery
A China in a Bull's Shop
When the U.S. stops borrowing and printing money and raises interest rates substantially, real support for the dollar will exist. Until that happens, the long-term downtrend will continually reassert itself.
2010-01-12 by Daryl Montgomery
The U.S. Dollar in Early 2010 Trading
We are in an era when all fiat currencies globally are losing their value against gold. Unless something is done to stop this, paper money will eventually get to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
2010-01-11 by Daryl Montgomery
Negative Interest Rates Imply Credit Crisis Started Much Earlier
There is more than enough evidence to indicate that a long-term recessionary period actually began in the U.S. in 2000. Manipulated inflation rates and GDP calculations hid the details from the public. The U.S. government, businesses, and consumers lived off ever-increasing borrowing and this made up for declining income.
2010-01-08 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. Employment Numbers Indicate More Stimulus Ahead
Unemployment is perhaps the most sticky of political issues and something that politicians watch closely. Their automatic reaction is to spend more money to tackle the problem. First they borrow it, and when the credit lines run out, they print it.
2010-01-07 by Daryl Montgomery
The Fourth Trading Day of 2010 -
The Message From the Market
The zero or just above interest rate policies of the world's central banks are flooding the global financial system with cash. As long as this continues, global markets and commodities should continue to rally.
2010-01-06 by Daryl Montgomery
ISM Reports for December Confirm Inflation
Toward the bottom of the report, the following statement can be found: "No commodities were reported down in price". Government stimulus seems to be doing a good job of stimulating prices.
2010-01-05 by Daryl Montgomery
America’s Other Big Deficit –
More Borrowing Ahead
Everyone knows about the huge U.S. budget deficit and ever-climbing national debt
(over $12 trillion at the end of 2009), but much less attention is paid to the Trade Deficit.
2010-01-04 by Daryl Montgomery
Interest Rate Rally Portends Inflation in 2010
The same thing happened in Weimar Germany, with the equivalent cast of characters claiming deflation was a problem - not inflation - right up to the point where prices exploded. There is no reason the script should be different this time. It rarely is.
2009-12-31 by Daryl Montgomery
Economic & Market Predictions for 2010
Blog Wrap Up for 2009
Commodities Versus Stocks: A Decade Performance Review
2009-12-29 by Daryl Montgomery
The Inflation of Art and the Art of Inflation
While the Obama administration is making noises about trying to control the U.S. budget deficit by freezing expenditures or even cutting them by 5%, this is simply an empty symbolic gesture meant to placate America's creditors.
2009-12-28 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. Inflation Reports – Contradictions and Absurdities
Based on the dollar's performance during his tenure (Bernanke), all the Fed has done is watch it go down. Since 2001, the most consistently bullish asset has been inflation-sensitive gold. It will close out 2009 with 9 up years in a row.
2009-12-27 by Daryl Montgomery
The Upcoming Bailouts in 2010
The PBGC (Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation), a government chartered company that insures U.S. pensions, is another operation that is heading toward a bailout. In its 35 years of operation, the PBGC has lost money in 29.
2009-12-25 by Daryl Montgomery
2009-123-26 by Daryl Montgomery
Subprime Crisis #2 Coming Soon
The FHA is only one of many new bailouts coming. A number of state and local governments are falling deeper into the red. Tax receipts are coming in at even lower levels than anything previously thought possible (chalk this down to another mystery of the supposedly recovering economy).
2009-12-25 by Daryl Montgomery
New Homes Reveal Old Problems With Government Statistics
If new home sales were rising between April to October as the Commerce Department reported, why are home builders building fewer and fewer homes? That doesn't look like an industry in recovery as the public has been repeatedly told.
2009-12-24 by Daryl Montgomery
Our Current Economic Illusions
The real lagging indicator seems to be the truth about what is really going on in the economy.
2009-12-23 by Daryl Montgomery
2009-12-23 by Daryl Montgomery
When the Invisible Hand is the Government
When that invisible hand becomes the government, you no longer have capitalism, nor do you have efficiency.
2009-12-22 by Daryl Montgomery
GDP Revision Indicates Recession Isn't Over
There were three major sources of growth in third quarter GDP. In order of importance they were: government stimulus, government stimulus, and government stimulus.
2009-12-22
Q&A Ask Daryl: from Betty H. of Ft. Lauderdale, FL
"I realize the real estate bubble has burst. But why have prices come down so much? Was my house ever really worth that much or was this some kind of joke?"
"What's the next bubble so I can hide my cash?"
2009-12-22 by Daryl Montgomery
The Three Big Economic Lies of 2009
The economy is in recovery; Unemployment is a lagging indicator; and Inflation is not a problem. Let's examine why each one of them is not true.
2009-12-17 by Daryl Montgomery
U.S. Plays Shell Game with Bailout Money
Bernanke failed to see the Credit Crisis coming and then when it blew up, he used it as an opportunity for a Fed power grab and a chance to loot the U.S. Treasury and transfer taxpayer money to Wall Street firms.
2009-12-16 by Daryl Montgomery
Why Inflation Is and Will Be a Problem
Central bank easy money policy with excessive government borrowing, backed up by money-printing, is what causes a currency to decline.
2009-12-14 by Daryl Montgomery
Five Reasons That Gold is Going to Rise:
A Response to Nouriel Roubini
Considering the amount of inflation that history tells us is about to take place, there had better be a free lunch because few people will be able to pay for the real one.
2009-12-12 by Daryl Montgomery
More Gov't Stimulus and More Debt
New job creating stimulus when economy is supposedly in recovery?
2009-12-12 Q & A for Daryl Montgomery
Q. What is your current take on the economy?
A. My take on the Credit Crisis is there is going to be more money printing and more money printing and more money printing. The economy has not recovered, only the statistics have recovered (it's easier to 'fix' them than the economy). To keep things going will take a series of stimulus packages and there will be a lot more bailouts coming down the pike. The national debt will go higher and higher. Eventually the whole thing will blow up. Daryl.
2009-12-11 by Daryl Montgomery (Must Read)
Fuzzy Math Doesn't Add Up for
Economic Numbers
It's quite amazing the American consumer can keep buying
cars & trucks despite high unemployment.
2009-12-10 by Daryl Montgomery
The Common Roots of Hyperinflation
The roots of all hyperinflations are govt's not being able to fund their operations.
2009-11-09 by Hard Assets Investor
Peter Schiff: The Government Chose Wrong
"We're headed that way (runaway inflation) because we're creating too much money."
PetroDollar Warfare and Collapse of US Dollar...
by Charles H. Coppes
Argentina
by Jeffrey Kuhner, Washington Times
We are following the "Hopenhagen" NWO treaty,
Click... Read the treaty here
Is the "People's Gold" still at Fort Knox?
If the Gov't took care of it as they did the Strategic Silver Reserve,
then you deserve an answer. Ask The Fed!
|